Indígenas y científicos: juntos hacia la conservación de la biodiversidad

Desde 2001 la Universidad de Málaga colabora con comunidades del Estado Amazonas de Venezuela para mejorar la situación medioambiental en espacios habitados por estos pueblos. Todo ello mediante la integración del conocimiento tradicional y el de los investigadores

Favourability: concept, distinctive characteristics and potential usefulness

The idea of analysing the general favourability for the occurrence of an event was presented in 2006 through a mathematical function. However, even when favourability has been used in species distribution modelling, the conceptual framework of this function is not yet well perceived among many researchers. The present paper is conceived for providing a wider and more in-depth presentation of the idea of favourability; concretely, we aimed to clarify both the concept and the main distinctive characteristics of the favourability function, especially in relation to probability and suitability, the most common outputs in species distribution modelling. As the capabilities of the favourability function go beyond species distribution modelling, we also illustrate its usefulness for different research disciplines for which this function remains unknown. In particular, we stressed that the favourability function has potential to be applied in all the cases where the probability of occurrence of an event is analysed, such as, for example, habitat selection or epidemiological studies.The authors acknowledge funding from Spanish Plan Nacional de Investigación and FEDER CGL2009-11316/BOS. P. A. was supported by the Vicerrectorado de Investigación of the University of Malaga and currently by a Beatriu de Pinós fellowship funded by Comissionat per a Universitats i Recerca del Departament d’Innovació, Universitats i Empresa, of the Generalitat de Catalunya and the COFUND Programme–Marie Curie Actions under 7th Marc Programme of the European Community.Peer Reviewe

Evaluación del efecto barrera de las vías de transporte andaluzas al desplazamiento de la fauna como respuesta al cambio climático

Se evaluó el posible efecto barrera de las infraestructuras viarias de Andalucía al desplazamiento de las distribuciones futuras que previsiblemente tendrán que efectuar 20 especies amenazadas de tetrápodos no voladores para responder al cambio climático. Para elaborar los modelos ambientales se usó la función de favorabilidad y se consideraron dos modelos de circulación (CGCM2 y ECHAM4) y dos escenarios de emisiones (A2 y B2). Solo se ha predicho un desplazamiento de las áreas favorables en el futuro para Salamandra salamandra. La favorabilidad ambiental de S. salamandra se verá reducida en la mitad occidental, mientras que en el cuadrante nororiental se incrementará. El posible efecto barrera de las infraestructuras viarias para esta especie se evaluó teniendo en cuenta el posible flujo entre áreas separadas por ellas. Salamandra salamandra morenica tendrá que superar las barreras de la línea férrea Córdoba–Almorchón y del Ave Sevilla-Córdoba-Madrid para alcanzar las zonas más favorables situadas en el cuadrante nororiental.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourabilitymodel based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation “A and not B”) were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning

Applying Fuzzy Logic to Comparative Distribution Modelling: A Case Study with Two Sympatric Amphibians

We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourability model based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation “A and not B”) were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning

Species distribution models as a useful tool in conservation programs: the case of the Northern Bald Ibis

The Northern Bald Ibis (Geronticus eremita) is one of the most endangered species on the planet. Over the last century, the species had suffered an extreme decline in its population size, and is now considered to be critically endangered. Nowadays, the original distribution range of the species is restricted to the Agadir region in Morocco. In Europe the species is only present in Spain and Austria, and this is due to two different conservation projects with introduced animals born and raised in captivity. The aim of this project is to characterize those past and present areas used by the Northern Bald Ibis in their natural distribution in Morocco, identifying the most favorable areas for the assessment of the species in Morocco and also for making it possible to reintroduce this species to Europe. We used species distribution models with a presence/absence database obtained from bibliography and a set of environmental variables. Spatial variables were combined obtaining a trend surface variable, which is a purely spatial descriptor of the cohesion trend in the distribution of the species regarding its history and population dynamics. Another model was built using only environmental variables to identify those areas which are favorable for the species in relation to the environment, without the effects of the population's cohesion trend. Obtained models classified the areas into 'favorable', 'unfavorable' or 'uncertain'. In the case of Andalusia, introduced individuals have moved to favorable places in the North of Morocco, where the species was not present in the past. Moreover, for the first time there have been new records of this species on the occidental coast of Morocco, where the models also predict a maximum in the favorability. This methodology could be used to detect the best places to introduce new individuals or to create protected areas.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Favorabilidad ecogeográfica para el corzo: distribución y abundancia

[EN]: Species distribution models (SDM) are widely used in ecology, biogeography and conservation. Here, we modelled the distribution of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in mainland Spain in order to i) determine its macro-ecological requirements, ii) assess the favourability for this species and iii) explore the model usefulness as an index of the species relative abundance. Our results showed that roe deer distribution can be explained by predictors related with topography, climate, lithology, geography and human activity. Climate was the more relevant factor, followed by human activity, topography, spatial location and lithology. The model accurately predicted the species probability of occurrence and also, but weakly, the species' relative abundance.[ES]: Los modelos de distribución de especies (SDM) están siendo cada vez más usados para abordar cuestiones relacionadas con la ecología, biogeografía y conservación de las especies. En este estudio nos proponemos realizar un modelo de distribución para el corzo (Capreolus capreolus) en la España peninsular para estudiar los determinantes macroambientales de su rango de distribución, evaluar la favorabilidad para la especie, y la utilidad del modelo como indicador de su abundancia relativa. El modelo indica que su distribución se puede explicar en términos topográficos, climáticos, litológicos, geográficos y de presión humana. El clima fue el factor que en su efecto puro explicó un mayor porcentaje de variación, y le siguen la presión humana, la topografía, la localización espacial y la litología. El modelo obtenido predijo con elevada precisión la probabilidad de presencia de la especie y con cierto detalle su abundancia relativa.Este trabajo ha sido promovido y financiado por la Consejería de Medio Ambiente de la Junta de Comunidades de Castilla – La Mancha. P. Acevedo disfruta de un contrato dentro del programa Juan de la Cierva –Fondo Social Europeo y sus investigaciones están parcialmente financiadas por el proyecto del Plan Nacional CGL2009-11316 - FEDER.Peer Reviewe

Respuestas biogeográficas de las aves al cambio climático en la Península Ibérica

Ponencia invitada la VII Congreso Ibérico de Ornitología SEO/BirdlifeEl clima condiciona la distribución de las aves y la fenología de su migración y reproducción, ya que las especies interaccionan con el ambiente que les rodea y presentan distintos niveles de respuesta en función de las condiciones ambientales. El clima es un fenómeno intrínsecamente cambiante. En los dos últimos millones de años se han sucedido más de 15 periodos glaciales e interglaciales, los cuales provocaron respuestas biogeográficas drásticas por parte de las aves. Actualmente se está produciendo un calentamiento general de la atmósfera y los océanos que ya está afectando a las aves. Una de las zonas del planeta donde esto es más aparente es la Península Ibérica, debido a su posición geográfica entre África y el resto de Europa. Algunas aves ibéricas están cambiando la fenología de sus distribuciones y sus patrones de invernada, al igual que algunas especies típicamente africanas empiezan a verse con frecuencia en el sur de la Península Ibérica. Estudios biogeográficos sugieren que el cambio en el clima está suponiendo para algunas especies una presión para abandonar zonas que están dejando de ser favorables para ellas, así como la aparición de oportunidades nuevas en áreas que se están volviendo más favorables. Además, las especies pueden responder a los desafíos ambientales evolucionando, lo que puede suponer cambios potencialmente rápidos en sus comportamientos. La posibilidad de que estos cambios se produzcan puede ser contemplada en las hipótesis biogeográficas sobre la respuesta de las aves al cambio climático, lo que resulta en variaciones notables en las previsiones de viabilidad de las poblaciones o de su capacidad para aprovechar las nuevas oportunidades. En este contexto, la política de conservación no puede centrarse en la preservación de la naturaleza en su estado actual o anterior, sino que tiene que incorporar la preservación de los procesos que permiten a las especies responder a los cambios ambientales de forma adaptativa.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Combined Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on Sea Surface Temperature in the Alborán Sea

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Albora´n Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Albora´n watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST.CGL2009-11316 (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain, and FEDER

Changes in potential mammal diversity in national parks and their implications for conservation

Observed species richness (OSR) is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric. However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant. Two metrics that include observed and potential species were recently defined: potential biodiversity (hereafter potential species richness—PSR) and geometric mean of favorabilities (GMF). We used these metrics to evaluate the national park network of mainland Spain at two time periods (2002 and 2015), using terrestrial mammals on a UTM 100-km2 grid. PSR and GMF are based on the favorability function, a species distribution model that assesses how favorable an area is for the presence of a species, over and above its prevalence in the study area. For each park and for the whole network, we calculated the mean and sum of OSR, PSR, and GMF in each time period, as well as changes between periods. OSR and PSR were higher inside than outside the park network in both time periods. Thus, although the network covers a very small proportion of the country, it performs well for the representation of mammal species and their favorable areas. However, mean PSR was lower in 2015 than in 2002 inside the national park network, whereas the opposite was the case outside the network. Mountainous Parks generally not only concentrated highly favorable areas for mammals, but they also showed less favorable areas in 2015 compared to 2002, although the reduction was moderate to low. This is a result to consider for future analyses because if the tendency increases, it may have consequences for the conservation of mammals and for the adequacy of the national park network